With a deeply unpopular president, South Korea braces for its midterm year
Around this time last year, a new president took office in South Korea. Yoon Seok-yeol, a former prosecutor, narrowly defeated his challenger from the then-incumbent Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, running a campaign that many recognized as tacking to the right.
Shortly after ascending to the presidency, Yoon’s tenure had already gone off the rails. By August, Yoon’s approval rating had already declined into the low-30s. One poll, Morning Consult’s Global Leader Approval Tracker, even saw Yoon sink below a -50 net negative rating. This decline was a direct result of several high-profile errors on the part of the new administration, including the decision not to use the traditional “Blue House” presidential residence. When floods hit Seoul that month, the president was criticized for the move, as it prevented him from being on-site to oversee the disaster response.
The debacle is by no means the only source of criticism towards Yoon, but emblemizes the government’s deep unpopularity. In October, mass protests called for Yoon’s resignation, and for a time it even seemed that impeachment could be in the cards. The Itaewon crowd crush tragedy, which claimed over a hundred lives and resulted in a minister’s impeachment, likewise saw the government face a torrent of criticism for failing in its prevention.
As of this year, Yoon remains starkly unpopular, albeit less than the heights of discontent he saw in 2022. The latest Gallup Korea poll sees Yoon at 36% approval, with 57% saying they do not approve of his performance. In Morning Consult, he’s still at -48.
While South Korea’s legislative midterm is around a year away, it’s not too soon to speculate on what kind of result could materialize if heavy dissatisfaction with this administration continues.
First, it’s worth pointing out that the legislature is currently dominated by the opposition. While the last election took place under President Moon, the global “rally around the flag” effect buoyed his Democratic Party’s prospects, resulting in a landslide constituency-level win of 180/300 seats (despite losing the popular vote).
Given their strong position heading into next year, the Democrats could be strongly favored for another victory, taking advantage of Yoon’s unpopularity. But prospects for outside forces may be even more intriguing.
In a by-election held in April, the left-wing Progressive Party won, netting its only member of parliament. The party is the successor of the United Progressive Party, disbanded by courts over eight years ago “for its close alignment with North Korea.” Their candidate, Kang Sung-hee, slammed Yoon as a “dictator” during the campaign.
The more mainstream Justice Party, which campaigns to the left of the Democratic Party, also merits some attention. While most South Koreans don’t identify as supporters of the party, they did increase their share of the vote between 2016 and 2020, from around 7% to almost 10%. Given the foil of Yoon in office, the party could have an opportunity to make similar headway next year.
Not much data is available for this election so far, which means observers are flying somewhat in the dark (though one early survey does currently point to a strong opposition victory). But the fact remains that Yoon and his People Power Party face major headwinds as we proceed towards 2024. Recovery for such an unpopular president is not impossible, but it does seem unlikely.
If the results are particularly bad for Yoon, the path towards potential impeachment could become wider. 200/300 legislators are needed to proceed with such a motion. Given his history in office so far, it’s hard to say definitively that removal from office won’t be in the cards in the years to follow.
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