One of the AfD's most extreme leaders could be its candidate for chancellor
Germany's AfD has made international waves in recent months, owing to a polling surge that has seen the party rise to over 20% of the vote. Some commentary has even discussed the prospect of banning the party, an initiative that failed in relation to the “neo-Nazi” NPD party back in 2017.
The reason cited in ruling against dissolution of the NPD, however, was the party's effective capability in subverting democracy. News outlets at the time described the NPD as “not worth banning.” But drift within the AfD and recent noise made by the party could have the potential to change that calculation.
Over the years the AfD has experienced several “changing of the guard" moments. The party was initially founded as a home for conservative-liberal Eurosceptics, embodied by one of their first leaders, Bernd Lucke. But gradually the party has shed its more moderate figures, including a slate of prominent politicians like Frauke Petry who believed the party should tack closer to a merely “national conservative" position.
Instead, ascendant is “Der Flügel” (which literally translates to “The Wing”), a faction of the party known for harboring some of its most extreme elements, including proponents of “volkisch” ethnonationalism. Der Flügel's geographic stronghold is the same as the AfD's overall stronghold: East Germany, where the party holds state polling leads with nearly 30% of the vote or more across the board.
Der Flügel is led by Björn Höcke, the head of the AfD in Thuringia, the state where the AfD polls best overall. Höcke is infamous for lobbing various far-right policy positions, creating flares of controversy in the media. While generally known as an anti-immigrant campaigner, Höcke most recently drew condemnation for suggesting that German schools should drop their commitment to inclusion, a statement targeted at disabled German youth.
Two months ago, Höcke was also charged by prosecutors for allegedly making a Nazi reference.
Meanwhile, both analysts and party figures see Höcke as a prospective national leader for the party. When asked about the potential of Höcke as chancellor candidate, one of the AfD’s current co-leaders, Alice Weidel, did not rule it out. Chancellor candidates are separate from party leaders, although in such a scenario they’re likely to be seen as synonymous.
The AfD over its history has mostly run a slate of two candidacies for chancellor. In the event that the party was ever in position to form a government, one of the two would have been expected to take up the chancellor role (although the AfD has never been remotely in that territory). If speculation around that did exist, it mostly surrounded Weidel, as one of the party’s most prominent and visible figures.
But in the wake of its rise, the AfD wants to solidify its candidacy by putting up a single name for chancellor in 2025. The shift further suggests the AfD could adopt an element of personalist leadership, in line with other nationalist outfits across the continent. Most parties of the European far-right have a figure who is clearly in command: Le Pen and her National Rally, Santiago Abascal and Vox, etc. In this regard, the AfD has been an anomaly until now.
If Höcke is the candidate, and this surge continues, the possible impact can’t be overstated. Höcke in full command of the party would represent the ratification of Der Flügel ascendancy, having completed its transition away from figures seeking to put up a more moderate face for the party.
With red lines around the party appearing to fade, Höcke’s emergence as leader could arrive at a time of maximum consequence. It’s no overstatement to say that Hocke as part of government, whether at the fore or in a supportive role, would be one of the most significant political developments in Europe of this century.
And given Höcke’s history, it would not be surprising to see him cited as a leading factor in a ban if courts do decide the AfD is “anti-constitutional” in nature.
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