In Poland, anti-EU nationalists seek the balance of power
Poland’s Law and Justice has been seen as a forebearer of some political trends in the EU. Long before the bloc’s right-wing nationalists found themselves at the gates of power, Law and Justice was running the country. The hard-right party was one of the few in government to actively reach out to Donald Trump when he ascended to the US presidency in 2016. But despite their radical stance in many areas, which has led to serious clashes with the EU, the party is known for its overall support for the project. Polish people in general are some of the strongest supporters of the EU in the bloc.
That could change, if an upstart alliance of ultranationalists and “paleolibertarians” has its way. Konfederacja, which entered parliament in 2019, now finds itself positioned to potentially crown a new Polish government.
Konfederacja is forged, in part, from Ruch Narodowy (the “National Movement”), a far-right nationalist party known for its role in organizing Poland’s “Independence March” alongside other groups, like the fascist “National Radical Camp.” The other key component in Konfederacja is “New Hope,” formerly the vehicle for the right-wing libertarian politician Janusz Korwin-Mikke, who has run for president numerous times in the past.
In 2020, Poland held its presidential election. The Konfederacja primary saw National Movement candidate Krzysztof Bosak beat Korwin-Mikke and the leader of a monarchist party, strengthening their pre-eminence within the alliance, though Bosak would go on to take only around 7% in the presidential first round- almost exactly the share that brought them into parliament in 2019.
Though Konfederacja has attempted to make itself “presentable” as a political outfit in recent years, its constituent parties have taken extreme positions. The alliance in general can be characterized as hard Eurosceptics and figures within it have, at times, expressed opposition to NATO. In the wake of Russia’s invasion, Konfederacja politicians have campaigned on “anti-Ukraine sentiment,” targeting Poland’s military support for the country and its acceptance of Ukrainian refugees.
One politician within Konfederacja, the monarchist leader Grzegorz Braun, has even called for the “formal enthronement” of Jesus Christ as King of Poland. For international observers, however, it is the National Movement’s links to Polish fascism that will likely cause the most alarm.
Over the past few months, Konfederacja have seen a minor but significant surge in polling, hitting 14% in some surveys. Currently, Politico’s Poll of Polls (for Poland) shows the alliance at 12% of the vote. Given erosion for the ruling Law and Justice, well below the 44% that barely won them a majority in 2019, that may be enough for the group to call shots on who takes over parliament.
At the moment, Law and Justice deny suggestions that they’ll work with Konfederacja. While the statement reveals the stakes at play- even Law and Justice find Konfederacja too odious for coalition deals- being backed into a corner may shift this stance for an incumbent party unwilling to give up its grip on power. According to Notes from Poland, “most commentators expect [Konfederacja] to come to some kind of accommodation with [Law and Justice].”
It is not the only story of its kind in the EU. In Hungary, an ultranationalist party, “Our Homeland,” has surged to similar heights. In Romania, AUR, home to fascist sympathizers, climbed past 20% of the vote. And in Bulgaria, which has seen five elections in recent years, the pro-Russia Revival party hit 15% in polls. Most of these parties are not only considered anti-EU, but also seek to absorb neighboring territories or countries.
With Poland’s election due for fall of this year, the country could be in for one of its most intense- and consequential- campaigns in its modern history.
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