Greece's impending chaos election
Greece is a peculiar situation. In 2016, the incumbent SYRIZA government passed a law to change the voting system, scuttling their “majority bonus,” a 50-seat lift for parties that win the popular vote which is intended to make government formation easier. The country hadn’t held an election with real proportional representation since 1990. But the law didn’t go into effect right away- because it passed with a simple majority, rather than two-thirds, it was slated to take effect in the next next election.
Seven years later, that election is now rolling around, possibly landing this spring. Polls mostly promise chaos. While the current party in power, New Democracy, maintains a substantial popular vote lead, they are well below a majority, and could have to work across the aisle- and/or with the far-right- to retain the executive. One path may be through the Greek center-left, whom New Democracy has worked with before. But in the event ND cannot form a majority with PASOK, coalition math becomes more tenuous.
In 2020, the leadership of Greece’s neo-Nazi “Golden Dawn” party were sent to prison, with the group condemned as a criminal organization. Convictions of party members included a guilty charge for the murder of an anti-fascist Greek rapper and political activist. Golden Dawn’s spokesman, Ilias Kasidiaris, a man emblazoned with a swastika tattoo, was also jailed for his role in the party’s gang activities.
While in prison, Kasidiaris started a new effort, the “National Party.” Some recent polls have seen them crossing Greece’s 3% electoral threshold. The problem for Kasidiaris is that lawmakers have now banned the party from running- or any party that is led by a convicted criminal. This new law could face court scrutiny, and analysts wonder whether attempting to block Kasidiaris could backfire.
Nevertheless, the potential of Kasidiaris playing kingmaker is slim. It’s the Communist Party that could be in position to disrupt.
Greece has one of the EU’s few seated parties that outright carries the big-C “Communist” label, with other noteworthy examples to be found in Spain, Portugal, and France. In the Czech Republic, the Communist Party was kicked out of parliament last year after sinking below the 5% threshold. The Communist Party of Austria is currently gaining traction at the state level.
While SYRIZA may be well behind ND in polls, parties of the left overall could still amount to a majority together. But such a coalition would almost certainly necessitate Communist support, an unprecedented situation in the country- and an agreement that Greece’s Communists have already “ruled out.” Still, it may be the most apparent option in the event that ND and PASOK do not make it across the line together.
(Communists have governed in Greece before, but as part of a brief “national unity” government.)
That prospective alliance is also tenuous. Another option, which also involves the two parties, would require bringing in the far-right “Greek Solution,” a nationalist party, with a leader infamous for selling “letters from Jesus” and who considers himself a fan of Viktor Orban.
A coalition of conservatives, social democrats, and nationalists may sound strange, but SYRIZA previously spent a term in office leaning on the support of ANEL, a party displaying only a slightly more moderate character than Greek Solution. That likewise puts into question whether some kind of “grand coalition” is possible here, though that also seems like a stretch.
Here’s the kicker: Whatever the outcome, the system is set for another change. New Democracy almost immediately brought back the majority bonus upon returning to government in 2019. For the same reasons as the last shift, this will take effect upon the next election, whenever that may be. Given the circumstances, it may not be too far away.
Connections
In neighboring Bulgaria, electoral chaos reigns: the country is going to the polls for its “fifth election in two years,” and will probably get there before Greece goes to vote. And Israel is in the Mediterranean, too.
Italy, also not far from Greece, is another example of a country that once featured a “majority bonus” system. That wasn’t in effect for long though, and its seven-year implementation came to an end after the 2013 election.
Greece is not the only country that has seen an outright neo-Nazi party rise in recent history. In Slovakia, Marian Kotleba’s L’SNS has seats in parliament, and Kotleba himself was the governor of a region for a single term until voters kicked him out in 2017. That party has also seen decline, and a splinter, Republika, has emerged with higher polling.
Elsewhere in the region, in Hungary and Romania, parties with sympathizers of the countries’ respective WW2-era fascist governments entered parliament in the last elections.
Cyprus just held its presidential election. Run-off surveys taken before the first round were remarkably off compared to the actual results, providing a reminder that polling is only a snapshot, and can shift drastically in a short amount of time.