Ecuador's snap election is completely up in the air
After defying the “pink wave” that brought left-wing candidates to power across South America over the past few years, Ecuador is headed back to the polls in August to elect a new president. Owing to the country’s recent political turmoil, which culminated in the dissolution of Congress and the resignation of the president, these new elections will take place just two years after the 2021 election that saw conservative Guillermo Lasso win in an upset.
That election was hard-fought and chaotic, featuring the strong emergence of an indigenous rights candidate, Yaku Pérez. Yaku, an activist and former provincial prefect, almost reached the second round, missing out to Lasso by less than a point. While Yaku ran a historic campaign as the standardbearer for an indigenous party, many blamed him for spoiling the election by not endorsing the left-wing candidate, Andrés Arauz, in the run-off.
This time around, however, Yaku may be well positioned for another serious run. He’s already announced a new campaign, and one poll featuring Luisa González- the candidate chosen to succeed Arauz as nominee of the party of former president Rafael Correa- even has Yaku in first place, albeit taken prior to her confirmation.
That candidate could face scrutiny for her conservative views, including an extremely strict stance on abortion that has worried members of her own party- though she now claims she would not roll back any rights.
The indigenous movement Yaku ran with in 2021, Pachakutik, says they’ll support him this time around as well, despite a few years of bad blood between the two in the wake of his narrow miss. He will also be backed by several smaller leftist parties, including Unidad Popular, an anti-Correa Marxist outfit.
While González’s Correa backing could be decisive in lifting her prospects, the dynamics of this election make for a high level of uncertainty. Lasso’s conservatives have been effectively neutralized by his unpopularity and perception of corruption. Currently, it seems possible we could see a Correaist versus indigenous rights party run-off, but there are still around two months for new developments to emerge.
Another candidate in the mix, Jan Topic, considers himself a strong admirer of El Salvador’s authoritarian leader Nayib Bukele. Topic is a former volunteer combat sniper who says he’s served in Syria and Ukraine, and has been nominated by the right-wing Social Christian Party. But for now, he only shows up at single digits in polling.
Snap elections often present opportunities for unexpected outcomes. No one should be surprised to see yet another region-shaking story result from this election.
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