Ecuador and Uruguay aim at extending the "pink tide"
The world has seen several continental political shifts in recent years. In Europe, the “social democracy wave” appears to be waning, as news outlets forecast a strong right-wing lurch across the EU. Likewise, the South American pink tide has shown signs of buckling in the wake of its early 20s ascendancy.
In Chile, which elected the left-wing Gabriel Boric just two years ago, prospects for progressives in the country’s near future now appear dim, as the far-right now wields massive influence in the drafting of the country’s potential new constitution. Argentina, too, has an election coming up, which could see the left-friendly government replaced by liberal-conservative opposition or, in a more unlikely scenario, Trumpist libertarian ultras.
But in two South American countries, Ecuador and Uruguay, the pink tide is still rolling in. Despite early uncertainty in Ecuador’s upcoming snap election, the candidate of Rafael Correa’s party has now taken a massive lead that could see her elected in the first round. And in Uruguay, which faces its election next year, the “Broad Front” currently appears in polls with a strong chance to flip the country from the center-right “National Party.”
Every poll taken for Ecuador’s election since the beginning of the campaign period has shown the Correaist “Citizen Revolution Movement” at the top, with candidate Luisa González ascending above the share required to avoid a run-off (40% of the vote, and 10 points higher than the second place candidate).
However, González’s background as a legislator will draw pause from international commentators, given her support for the country’s extreme restrictions on abortion. González claims she won’t “roll back” rights in Ecuador, but many will doubt whether she’s interested in pushing them forward. Nevertheless, González owes her commanding position to her status as the Correaist nominee. That could go some way towards drawing her in line with the party’s positions.
Uruguay does not hold its election until late 2024, and members of the Broad Front have yet to determine their nominee. Among the top contenders are the executives of Canelones and Montevideo, Yamandú Orsi and Carolina Cosse respectively. Between the two, Cosse is considered the more progressive pick, though Orsi has ties to the MPP of left-populist former Uruguayan president Pepe Mujica.
Another wild-card potential nominee, Óscar Andrade, has shown up with significant support in polling. Andrade is a senator, trade union leader and member of the Communist Party of Uruguay, which aligns itself with the Broad Front. Like Cosse, he was a candidate for president in 2019, narrowly missing out on second place with 23%. As such, a second Andrade run cannot be dismissed.
At the moment, developments in Chile, Argentina and Peru do not bode well for the immediate legacy of the pink tide, which could easily be subverted with right-wing or far-right victories in months and years to come. In the unlikely event that Argentina somehow resists a flip to the opposition, however, it would leave Paraguay as the only country on the continent with a government that aligns itself with the political right.
Five years down the line, that situation could be drastically different. For now, however, we could be seeing the pink tide crest.
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