Could the bottom fall out for Macron's movement?
Last year’s French election might well be described as “overhyped.” Despite polls at times showing Marine Le Pen drawing within striking range of Macron, her candidacy ended up falling well short, losing by over 17 points. While that’s still around half the margin she lost by in 2017, the performance was received by some as evidence that a strong anti-nationalist majority would remain politically dominant in France.
In legislative elections a few months later, that observation was pierced. Rather than shirk at their presidential election disappointment, Le Pen’s National Rally charged forward, despite an electoral system perceived to vastly disadvantage them. The party ended up increasing its seat share by 82, an outcome that staggered political observers.
While not close to a majority in parliament, the National Rally had staged a breakthrough, suggesting the opposite of April’s takeaway. Far from exiting the scene, Le Pen will continue to be a force in the years to come.
For the French left, it was a historic election season as well. Mélenchon scored his best-ever result in the presidential first round, despite coming up short. Left-of-center parties exhibited shocking unity by forging the NUPES alliance, which became parliament’s second-largest political force, behind Macron’s Ensemble.
Now, after intense protests over pension reform that have seen some of the largest demonstrations in decades, left and right may be positioned for a future clash- one that could see a stark political turn for a country that incentivizes centrism in its electoral institutions.
When talking about France’s political future, it must be emphasized that the next presidential election is around four years away, set for 2027. But Macron is limited to two terms, and early indications reveal limited options to succeed him within his alliance. Likewise, he will face a gauntlet of tests, the most notable being next year’s European elections, that could set his movement back further.
A recent poll from Elabe showed that only one name- Édouard Philippe, the former French prime minister who currently serves as Mayor of Le Havre- is positioned to make the run-off at the head of Macron’s “Ensemble” movement. Other figures, including finance minister Bruno Le Maire and the controversial interior minister Gérald Darmanin, would fall short of both Le Pen and Mélenchon.
For her part, Le Pen scores some of her highest polling ever in a few of these scenarios, reaching heights of 36%.
Édouard Philippe may be one of the more likely names to run in Macron’s stead, though he has clashed with the president before. That distance between Macron may be a boon, however, as Macron’s approvals sink to pre-COVID levels. In a hypothetical rematch between him and Le Pen that is legally precluded from happening, the same pollster sees Macron losing by 10 points.
Both Le Pen and Mélenchon, in the recent past, have made claims they’re not interested in running for president an umpteenth time. But depending on how circumstances shake out, the opportunity may look too good to pass up, potentially setting the stage for a run-off contest of polar opposites.
No one knows what kind of developments will unfold between now and 2027, but it’s not hard to anticipate Macron’s Ensemble struggling to keep its head above water. If EU election results are poor for the party, subsequent tests in the form of municipal and regional elections might hit even harder.
The opposition will have its own marathon to run. The future of the NUPES alliance is unclear, and the only municipality of more than 100,000 people Le Pen’s National Rally has ever won is Perpignan.
It’s clear, however, that despite the next election’s distance, observers will have a lot to watch here. While it’s unlikely to happen, public frustration has reached the point where over 50% want to see a snap election. Even if they don’t get one, there will be many opportunities for the French to vent their anger.
Connections
In Sri Lanka, last year’s political crisis has seen the emergence of a historically radical Marxist party, with local elections to come towards the end of this month.
Polarized run-offs seem increasingly common, especially in Latin America, which has seen scores of them in recent years.
Low polling for Macron alternatives may be attributable to lack of familiarity. While the names mentioned are well-known figures, some candidates only surge once they hit the spotlight at the helm of major parties or movements.
Nearby incumbents are also on the rocks in Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands: Parties led by leaders of all three countries are currently behind, though only Spain faces an election this year.