Adding it up in Spain
Forged from the fires of the global financial crisis, Spain’s leftist Podemos party saw stunning heights in its early history. Back in 2014, Podemos actually rose to poll in contention for first place, an unheard-of feat for a party of its kind in the modern history of the country.
It was not the only left-wing populist phenomena in Europe around the time. In Greece, Syriza won its first legislative election in 2015. Corbyn won the Labour leadership election in September that year; France’s Melenchon launched the first of his three presidential campaigns to date back in 2012. And that year, the Netherlands’ Socialist Party rose to nearly 20% in some Dutch legislative polls.
For the most part, time has eroded momentum for these movements (though perhaps not for Melenchon, who improved on his support three times in a row). Podemos is no exception, and after two near-misses at clearing second place, an electoral alliance, and some splinters, the party currently finds itself hovering in the 10% range. That’s a far cry from the mid-20s polling that Podemos claimed at their zenith.
The malaise might be over for the Spanish left- but with a twist. Spain’s popular Minister of Labour Yolanda Díaz, not affiliated with Podemos, could be poised to lead a new effort into the future. Díaz is a member of the Communist Party of Spain, which is itself a member of the larger United Left, which forms the Unidas Podemos alliance along with Podemos. Deep breath. Díaz wants to apply another layer to this equation: her new political platform, Sumar, which literally means “to add” in Spanish.
Some polls have seen Díaz as the most popular figure in the government, surpassing Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. And indeed, her Sumar movement just received a major boost from a recent poll showing a left unified under her banner surging ahead to almost 19% of the vote. It’s more than the sum of Unidas Podemos and its breakaway, Más País, founded by former Podemos stalwart Íñigo Errejón. But the scenario supposes that everyone will be able to get along- which might be easier said than done.
Nevertheless, political gravity may be clearing the way for such an effort. Most observers of Spanish politics would not be able to tell you, at this point, what Sumar actually is. It’s currently unclear whether Sumar is intending to be an electoral alliance, a party on its own, or just a platform for Díaz to convey her message of left-wing unity.
Polls like the above, though, might shift the calculus. It’s increasingly apparent that a Díaz candidacy may be the Spanish left’s best bet at recapturing momentum they haven’t seen since the mid-2010s. Even within the ranks of Podemos, the leadership of which has been critical of Díaz for the vague dance recital that has characterized Sumar’s presence on the political stage thus far, there seems to be an emerging sense that Díaz is not an interloper, but could in fact be the path back to actual contention.
Spain has to hold its next general election by the end of next year. Whether Díaz really steps forward will be one of its defining questions - and could reverse a prolonged period of decline for the country’s left-wing forces.
Postscript
Before the next general election in Spain, the country will most likely hold regional and local elections. These, Díaz says, you can count Sumar out of.
Thinking about the dynamic here is a bit weird. On the one hand, of course Díaz is full-on Team Podemos for these elections. On the other hand, if Podemos ends up wilting, as some polls expect them to, it could strengthen Díaz’s unstated argument that the left needs her leadership- and unity- to survive.
A hearty Podemos performance here could also give party leadership the confidence to go ahead without her. Or, it could add fuel to the Díaz fire, putting up a flag that the aforementioned poll might not just be hype for a reinvigorated leftist platform. At any rate, the results will be something to watch.